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Chris Vail's avatar

The key feature of industrialism is automation, creating a machine to do something over and over. For non-technical types, a good example is the automobile, a machine created to provide transportation (and replace horses). Note that the automobile engine is described in terms of "horsepower". Automobiles have been further automated into computer networks, so that the automobile mechanics who replaced the carriage makers have now been deskilled to plug in a computer to diagnose a malfunction, which might be fixed by downloading software.

The technology to start industrialism was available for 1,000 years before, but the labor saving aspect was the deal killer. You aren't going to be interested in using a combine to harvest wheat if you then have to deal with 1,000 idle farm workers. It was only after the Black Death killed off half of the labor force that Europeans saw the value in labor saving technology.

The reason the Black Death killed so many people in Europe is the AMOC, the ocean current that provides Europe with lots of rain so that it doesn't resemble Siberia or Canada. Lots of rain means lots of grain to support lots of people and rats. History is geography. Now the AMOC is slowing because glaciers are melting, and if it stops Europe will become like Siberia. Perhaps the glaciers will then start growing again.

During the Bronze Age governments were much more involved in managing the economy, and they developed Jubilees in order to maintain social stability. But an outbreak of the Black Death in the Mediterranean area caused population collapse and ended the Bronze Age. Currency was invented in the ensuing Iron Age, which speeded up economic activity so that markets and armies and cities got larger. This made managing the economy more complex, because now you needed to keep track of money supply and velocity. Criminalizing usury was an attempt to control this new technology, but the European Black Death pandemic ended that in Christendom.

Finance capitalism has evolved to manage the conflict over labor. It got a boost when the US finally abolished slavery. But finance capitalism causes booms and busts at a much higher rate than previously. The US is dominated by finance capitalism.

But enough about the West. East Asia created the Silk Road in order to sell their manufactured goods to the West. In exchange East Asia got Western gold and silver, which caused the warring kingdoms period. The Mongols eventually created China (and sent the Black Death to Europe). The Ming dynasty turned in on itself, only to discover that the West had replaced their gold and silver by stealing it from the New World, and now they had gun ships. This led to the current government, which is communist with Chinese characteristics. Which means the Chinese government dominates finance capitalism. China has moved 800 million people out of poverty, while becoming a global hegemon (that dares to call the US a reckless hegemon).

Now, China is looking at population collapse this century due to the one child policy. The US has been growing in population due to immigration, but the current administration is ending that. The last time people had to deal with shrinking populations was the Black Death, which kicked off industrialism, which led to finance capitalism. What will shrinking populations lead to now?

If global human population drops to one billion, we can go back to riding horses.

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